Chinese premier Li Qiang expected to attend in Xi’s place as Beijing signals shift in diplomatic posture; Belt and Road tensions with Brazil may be a factor….reports Asian Lite News
In a rare break from tradition, Chinese President Xi Jinping is unlikely to attend the BRICS summit scheduled in Rio de Janeiro next month, according to a report by the South China Morning Post. If confirmed, this would mark the first time since assuming power in 2013 that Xi misses a leaders’ summit of the powerful emerging economies bloc comprising Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa.
The high-level summit, to be held on July 6–7, is significant not only because of its expanded format — now including five new members: Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE — but also due to its potential for bilateral engagements, particularly between India and China. Prime Minister Narendra Modi is expected to attend the gathering, raising questions about the future trajectory of Sino-Indian relations if the Chinese President is absent.
Multiple sources cited by the South China Morning Post say Chinese Premier Li Qiang, widely viewed as Xi’s close ally, will represent Beijing at the summit. China has yet to make an official announcement, with Foreign Ministry spokesperson Guo Jiakun stating only that “information on China’s attendance will be released in due course.” However, Guo reaffirmed Beijing’s support for Brazil’s BRICS presidency.
The possible absence of Xi is being closely analysed in diplomatic circles, particularly in light of his consistent engagement with BRICS over the past 12 years. Even at the height of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, Xi participated in the summit virtually, underlining his strong commitment to the grouping as a counterbalance to Western-led global institutions.
Brazil’s cold shoulder to BRI
One possible reason behind Xi’s decision to skip the summit could be the cooling of relations between Beijing and Brasília, particularly over the latter’s refusal to join the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Brazil, like India, remains one of the few major economies outside the infrastructure-driven economic plan championed by Xi. Diplomatic sources in Brazil told local media that Chinese officials had cited “scheduling conflicts” but hinted at deeper underlying tensions.
Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva had hoped to strengthen ties with China during the summit and is reportedly disappointed by Xi’s expected absence. Lula visited Beijing as recently as May, following an earlier meeting at the G20 and a state visit to China last November. “Lula’s team saw his visit as a goodwill gesture, expecting reciprocity,” one Brazilian official was quoted as saying by The Post.
Despite the growing trade between the two nations — China remains Brazil’s top trading partner — political divergence on key global issues and Beijing’s strategic focus on other Latin American nations may have contributed to this diplomatic distance.
Missed opportunity for India-China dialogue?
Xi’s absence would also mean the postponement of another potential face-to-face meeting with PM Modi, just months after both leaders broke a four-year freeze in dialogue during the 2023 BRICS summit in Kazan, Russia. That meeting had signalled a thaw in icy relations following the 2020 Galwan Valley clash in Ladakh and was followed by a series of working-level talks aimed at restoring bilateral dialogue mechanisms.
With the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit — to be hosted by China later this year — now being floated as the next likely venue for a Modi-Xi meeting, any delay could affect the slow recovery in ties between Asia’s two biggest economies. China currently chairs the SCO, and a formal summit is expected to be announced in the coming weeks.
China’s new Diplomatic playbook?
Observers note that Xi’s reported decision could also reflect a recalibration of China’s multilateral diplomacy under his third term. While BRICS remains important as a geopolitical bloc, Beijing has increasingly been prioritising regional forums where it plays a dominant role, such as the China-CELAC forum in Latin America and its own Belt and Road forums.
At the same time, China’s growing domestic economic challenges and an intensifying strategic rivalry with the US may be prompting a more inward-focused foreign policy posture, with Xi choosing to delegate more international appearances to Premier Li Qiang.
For Brazil, the summit presents both an opportunity and a diplomatic test. With an expanded BRICS format and growing global attention on alternative governance models, Lula’s government had hoped for a powerful show of unity among key developing powers. Xi’s absence could dampen that projection, at least symbolically.
In the absence of official confirmation, speculation remains, but the messaging is clear: Beijing is selectively redrawing its lines of engagement — and that could have implications far beyond the BRICS platform.
