May 15, 2025
4 mins read

India eyes US trade breakthrough

During US visit, Goyal is scheduled to hold high-level meetings with United States Trade Representative (USTR) Jamieson Greer and US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick.

Union Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal will lead a high-powered Indian delegation to Washington D.C. starting May 16, marking a critical juncture in ongoing efforts to finalise an interim bilateral trade agreement (BTA) between India and the United States. The four-day visit is aimed at securing “early mutual wins” on trade ahead of a comprehensive first-phase deal expected by the autumn of 2025.

Goyal is scheduled to hold high-level meetings with United States Trade Representative (USTR) Jamieson Greer and US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick. These talks are part of a strategic engagement designed to advance discussions during a 90-day window in which the US has paused additional tariff hikes on Indian goods.

According to senior government officials, the temporary suspension of the 26 per cent additional tariff, announced by the US on April 2 and effective until July 9, offers a unique diplomatic opening. However, the 10 per cent baseline tariff remains in effect, underlining the urgency with which Indian negotiators are pursuing favourable terms for labour-intensive sectors.

Aiming for Balance: Mutual Concessions Under Discussion

India is seeking duty concessions from the US on a range of labour-intensive and export-focused sectors, including textiles, gems and jewellery, leather, garments, plastics, chemicals, shrimp, bananas, oilseeds, and grapes. These sectors form a critical backbone of India’s export economy and employ millions.

Conversely, the US is pushing for market access and tariff cuts in sectors such as industrial goods, dairy, certain agricultural products like apples and tree nuts, petrochemicals, wines, and electric vehicles. American officials have also expressed concern over non-tariff barriers that restrict US goods in the Indian market.

Sectoral-level negotiations are already underway, with both countries having finalised Terms of Reference (ToRs) that cover 19 chapters, ranging from tariff and non-tariff measures to rules of origin, customs procedures, and digital trade.

The momentum for this visit was set in motion last month when India’s Chief Trade Negotiator Rajesh Agrawal and Brendan Lynch, Assistant USTR for South and Central Asia, held three-day preparatory talks in Washington. These were followed by earlier bilateral meetings in March involving Goyal, Greer, and Lutnick.

Trade Ties and the Growing Surplus

The talks are being held in the context of robust and deepening trade ties. The United States has remained India’s largest trading partner for the fourth consecutive year in 2024–25, with bilateral trade valued at $131.84 billion. The US accounts for approximately 18 per cent of India’s total goods exports, 6.22 per cent of imports, and 10.73 per cent of total merchandise trade.

India’s trade surplus with the US — a point of contention for American policymakers — has continued to widen, rising from $22.7 billion in 2020–21 to $41.18 billion in 2024–25. While the surplus signals India’s growing competitiveness, it has also prompted Washington to seek greater reciprocity in the proposed trade deal.

Goyal Reviews Invest India Ahead of US Visit

Ahead of his departure, Goyal chaired a comprehensive review of Invest India, the country’s national investment promotion and facilitation agency. The meeting focused on enhancing the agency’s capacity to attract foreign direct investment (FDI), particularly in the backdrop of India’s manufacturing ambitions under the “Make in India” initiative.

Taking to social media, Goyal said the review covered strategies to improve investor engagement, empower micro, small, and medium enterprises (MSMEs), and accelerate industrial growth, especially in high-impact sectors like electronics, semiconductors, renewable energy, electric vehicles, food processing, pharmaceuticals, and infrastructure.

Set up in 2009, Invest India functions as a not-for-profit under the Department for Promotion of Industry and Internal Trade (DPIIT) and plays a pivotal role in providing end-to-end investor support—from pre-investment advisory to post-establishment services. Backed by both central and state governments, the agency is expected to act as a key partner in facilitating investments arising from the India–US trade framework.

Government Measures to Support Domestic Industry

To complement India’s outward-facing trade strategy, the government has announced a slew of domestic reforms. Among the most notable is the revision of the Credit Guarantee Scheme for Startups (CGSS), which has doubled the maximum guarantee cover from ₹10 crore to ₹20 crore. The guarantee coverage has been increased to 85 per cent for loans up to ₹10 crore for 27 identified champion sectors, while the annual guarantee fee has been slashed to 1 per cent.

In its Union Budget 2025, the government also expanded the definitions and thresholds for MSMEs, introduced customised credit cards with limits up to ₹5 lakh, and offered incentives to bolster credit flow and employment generation. With over 6.3 crore MSMEs employing 24 crore people, the sector is at the heart of India’s strategy to grow both exports and domestic resilience.

Outlook: Early Wins or Lingering Gaps?

With both India and the United States seeking an interim pact that can deliver immediate trade benefits without waiting for a full-scale agreement, the coming days in Washington are expected to be decisive. However, with politically sensitive sectors on both sides, negotiations may hinge on crafting compromises that are as much about optics as about economics.

India’s efforts to protect domestic manufacturing while expanding global trade reach are underpinned by a delicate balancing act — one that Goyal and his team will aim to finesse as they enter what could be a make-or-break round of negotiations with the world’s largest economy.

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