Traditionally, a large segment of the Hindu electorate has supported the Awami League, viewing it as a party committed to secularism and minority protection…reports Rudra Mukherjee
In democratic societies, minority voters often emerge as a decisive factor in elections when they constitute between five to 15 per cent of the electorate. Their voting preferences can significantly influence election outcomes, determining which party ascends to power. This phenomenon can be observed in countries like the United States, France, India, and the United Kingdom.
In the United States, minority voters — including African Americans, Latinos, and Asian Americans — make up nearly 30 per cent of the electorate. Their support was instrumental in Barack Obama’s victories in 2008 and 2012. Similarly, in India, where minority voters comprise approximately 15 per cent of the population, their influence is particularly strong in states like Bihar and West Bengal. The electoral fortunes of parties such as the Indian National Congress, Trinamool Congress, and Samajwadi Party are significantly shaped by Muslim voter support. In the UK, minorities of South Asian, African, and Caribbean descent make up about 14 per cent of the total population. Historically, the Labour Party has attracted strong support from these communities. Meanwhile, in France, where the Muslim minority accounts for around 9 per cent of the population, their votes have become crucial in presidential elections, influencing candidates like Emmanuel Macron. These examples underscore the decisive role of minority voters in democratic elections worldwide.
In Bangladesh, Hindu voters hold a similar significance in shaping election outcomes. Historically, they have played a key role in every national election. As of 2022, Hindus make up around eight per cent of Bangladesh’s total population or approximately 13 million people (Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics, 2022). While their percentage of the total population has declined over the past five decades, their absolute numbers have increased. In 1974, Hindus comprised 13.5 per cent of the population, a figure that has now fallen to 7.95 per cent. Census data from 1981 recorded the Hindu population at 12.1 per cent, which declined to 10.5 per cent in 1991, 9.2 per cent in 2001, 8.5 per cent in 2011, and 7.95 per cent in 2022. However, in terms of absolute numbers, the Hindu population has grown steadily: from 9.6 million in 1974 to 13.5 million in 2022.
Traditionally, a large segment of the Hindu electorate has supported the Awami League, viewing it as a party committed to secularism and minority protection. However, even under Awami League rule, incidents of Hindu persecution, land grabbing, and communal violence have persisted. The party has long campaigned on promises to uphold secularism and safeguard minority rights, leveraging its role in Bangladesh’s 1971 liberation war, led by Sheikh Mujibur Rahman, which was fought to establish a secular state.
Understanding Hindu voting patterns requires considering their political, economic, and security concerns. Ensuring the safety of minorities is crucial for any party seeking their support. Hindu voters tend to favour those who can effectively guarantee their security. Additionally, policies regarding minority welfare and the attitude of local parliamentarians toward the Hindu community significantly impact voter confidence.
Following the fall of the Awami League government on August 5 last year, the Hindu community once again faced persecution. Many Hindu homes and businesses were attacked, severely undermining their sense of security — similar to events in 1971, 1992, and 2001.
Past election data highlights the crucial role of Hindu voters in Bangladesh’s parliamentary elections. A close analysis of electoral trends suggests that the vote share between the Awami League and the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) is often closely contested, making minority votes a decisive factor. Other parties, such as the Jatiya Party and Jamaat-e-Islami, have never garnered more than 5–6 per cent of the total vote. As a result, the eight per cent Hindu vote remains highly significant. Studies indicate that Hindu voters directly influence outcomes in 88 of Bangladesh’s 300 parliamentary constituencies — 51 where they make up more than 15 per cent of voters and 38 where they constitute between 10 and 15 per cent. Districts such as Gopalganj, Khulna, Thakurgaon, Dinajpur, Moulvibazar, Sunamganj, Habiganj, Narail, Bagerhat, Magura, Pirojpur, Barisal, and Chittagong are particularly impacted by Hindu voting patterns.
Since independence, the Awami League has maintained an electoral advantage among Hindu voters. However, between 2008 and 2022 — despite Awami League rule — numerous incidents of Hindu persecution have fueled growing dissatisfaction within the community. This discontent has made Hindu voters more open to alternative political options. Recognising this, major political parties such as BNP and the National Citizens’ Party (NCP) are expected to focus more on securing Hindu votes. While BNP previously used anti-Hindu rhetoric in the 1991 and 2001 elections, it has recently shifted its strategy. In the 2018 elections, BNP even pledged special protection policies for religious minorities, acknowledging the electoral significance of Hindu voters.
The interim government has suggested that Bangladesh’s next national elections could take place in December this year. As the election process gains momentum, political parties are actively strategizing to attract Hindu voters. At the same time, the Hindu community itself is more aware and united than ever before. Since August 5, they have undertaken various public initiatives to voice their concerns.
Given these realities, any political party that formulates and implements genuine policies for minority protection could leverage Hindu voter support as a ‘trump card’ in electoral politics.
Historically, the Hindu community’s trust in the Awami League was rooted in the ideals of the Liberation War and secular governance. However, over time, administrative failures and actions by certain party leaders have eroded this trust. Notable incidents of violence and land grabs — recorded in 2012, 2013, 2016, and 2021 — have frequently implicated local Awami League figures. Although the Constitution upholds secularism, no specific protective legislation for minorities has been enacted. The ‘Vested Property Act’, which historically facilitated the confiscation of Hindu property, remains in effect, making land ownership a persistent issue for the community.
In this context, if any political party can genuinely ensure security and equal rights for minorities, Hindu voters may align with them — potentially turning into a decisive factor in the upcoming elections.
(The writer is a columnist specialising in Bangladesh affairs. Views expressed are personal)
