Giving long-range missiles to Ukraine, and permitting their use inside Russia, is akin to lighting a fuse that, were it to sputter on, could lead to a wider conflagration, writes Prof. Madhav Das Nalapat
The provision of long range missiles by the US to the Kiev regime is akin to giving petrol to a proven arsonist. The Biden administration has been staffed since 2017 by regime change aficionados, whose record of disaster is visible in what has happened in countries such as Libya and Syria, not to mention Iraq, the war by President George W. Bush on Saddam after the dictator had rendered himself defenceless by giving up his WMD stockpile following his defeat in Kuwait.
Clearly, Saddam was a threat to the region and needed to be removed, but not in the manner he was, which was by replacing his regime with a clutch of US citizens, that too in conjunction with the former colonial power, Britain.
Rather than show the magnanimity extended by the Allies to all but a few members of the Nazi Party in Germany after World War II, members of the Baath Party (many of whom had joined the party in order to protect their careers and families) were removed from their posts, including the entire Iraqi army after Desert Storm. The result was an administrative meltdown in Iraq.
The 2003 US-UK invasion and occupation of Iraq was followed by chaos and increasing violence, in which countless innocent Iraqis lost their fortunes and their lives. Under Saddam Hussein, despite claims to the contrary by US and UK officials, Al Qaeda had been stamped out, as were Wahhabis and Khomeinists.
During the US-UK occupation, Al Qaeda and elements of ISIS sprouted, wreaking havoc and even controlling at a point in time more than a third of Iraq. Backers of Khomeini grew, and to this day, the clerical regime in Iran has a strong say over the policy of the government in Iraq. Both Hillary Clinton as well as Joe Biden were supporters of the Iraq invasion and its aftermath.
Later, their disastrous regime-change expertise was put to work in Libya and Syria, with results just as flawed as what was witnessed in Afghanistan since 2001, a series of errors by both Republican and Democratic administrations that saw the return of the Taliban to power in Kabul in 2021, courtesy President Biden.
In Syria, efforts were made in 2011 by Hillary Clinton backed by Biden to remove Bashar Assad, who was kept going by Russia and Iran. A segment of Syria was “liberated” by US and allied forces, and it was there that Al Qaeda and ISIS sprouted. In 2011, individuals close to the government in Damascus sought peace with the US, offering an ending of support to Hamas and Hezbollah in exchange.
These efforts were rebuffed as evidence that the Assad regime was in its death throes. Instead, it remains in control of almost the entire country, with only the US-backed “liberated” zone hosting extremist elements. Meanwhile, Syria’s support to Hamas and Hezbollah continued, now that Damascus had become dependent on the clerical regime in Tehran for its survival.
None of these Clinton-Biden follies can match in the scale of potential consequences the errors that have been made in Ukraine. In 2014, a Russia-friendly President was replaced through street violence by a Russphobe, Petro Poroshenko. In retaliation, Putin annexed parts of Lugansk and Donetsk, besides the Crimean peninsula.
After inhabitants of these Russian-speaking enclaves had endured almost daily artillery fire and shelling, on 24 February 2022, Putin sent Russian forces into Ukraine. Under pressure from President Biden and UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson, a peace offer made by Vladimir Putin to Volodymyr Zelenskyy in April was rejected by the latter.
Since then, the carnage on both sides has been enormous, with NATO assisting Ukraine and China more covertly assisting the Russian Federation. As a consequence of walking away from the April 2022 offer of a ceasefire that would maintain the status quo, Zelenskyy has witnessed more land come under Russian control and the decimation of his forces.
Morale among the Ukrainian people is low, and the risk of another Maidan Revolt, this time against Zelenskyy, is rising.
Giving long-range missiles to Ukraine and permitting their use inside Russia is akin to lighting a fuse that, were it to sputter on, could lead to a wider conflagration already being talked about as World War III. From the start of the crisis in Ukraine since 2022, Prime Minister Narendra Modi has worked towards a ceasefire that would rescue the world from the risk of the war in Ukraine spreading beyond its boundaries.
Over the remainder of the Biden term, until January 20, 2025 when Trump takes charge, Putin is likely to intensify his attacks on Ukraine and if military need dictates, in locations elsewhere as well. Once Trump is in charge, if not earlier (provided the folly of their actions dawns on the Biden administration), only PM Modi has the capacity to mediate an end to the conflict.
Modi needs to be asked to do so by the White House before the Ukraine war develops into what Donald J. Trump Jr fears will happen, which is the onset of World War III during Biden’s remaining watch.
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