January 17, 2024
2 mins read

India Tops Asia Again

The Morgan Stanley report highlights India’s attractiveness within Asia, emphasizing its strong potential from a domestic demand perspective…reports Sanjeev Sharma

India’s nominal GDP growth will accelerate to 11.6 per cent this year versus 9.2 per cent in 2023, making it the third consecutive year that the country’s nominal GDP growth will be the strongest in Asia, according to a Morgan Stanley report.

Within Asia, India offers a compelling opportunity from a domestic demand alpha standpoint, the report said.

India’s contribution to Asian and global growth will rise to 30 per cent and 17 per cent, respectively, up from 28 per cent and 16 per cent in 2023. Over the medium term, real GDP growth will average 6.3 per cent until F32.

The report pointed to initial signs of rural consumption improving. There are now some signs that the broader consumption recovery in volume terms picked up pace in 4Q23, helped in part by firming rural demand.

Consumer durable goods production growth has strengthened to a 17-month high of 5.3 per centY during the October-November festive period.

Passenger vehicle sales growth accelerated to 27 per centY in Oct-Nov, vs. 22 per centY in 3Q. Importantly, two-wheeler sales growth has picked up to 26 per centY in Oct-Nov (vs. a weak -2 per centY in 3Q), indicating that rural demand is now joining in the recovery. This is also corroborated by fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) sales volume data which shows rural volume growth has accelerated to 6.4 per centY in 3Q23, vs. 4.0 per cent%Y in 2Q23 and just 0.3 per centY in 1Q23.

The effects of the policy push on supply side reforms have already been reflected in very strong outturns in public capex so far.

“We see the next phase of the capex cycle and indeed the expansion to be sustained by a pickup in private capex which will uplift and sustain productivity growth,” the report said.

Capex is accelerating as real GFCF growth has already accelerated to 11 per centY in 3Q23, much higher than the 2019-22 average of 6.2 per centY and also above the pre-covid 2017-18 average of 9.6 per centY.

In terms of the high frequency data that we have been monitoring, the incoming data continues to paint a positive picture on the current trends in capex.

Public capex has been strong with the Central government’s capex to GDP ratio rising to 3 per cent, an 18-year high.

Moreover, state-level capex data for 19 states show a renewed acceleration in state capex growth. On a 4Q trailing sum basis, private projects under implementation data is also rising to 18.5 per centY in 4Q23, up from an already strong 16.8 per cent in 3Q23.

FDI data has also risen in Oct-23.

“Finally, our India economics team’s proprietary capex indicator shows that the count of capex mentions by companies continued to accelerate for five consecutive quarters, rising to its all-time high in 2Q23,” Morgan Stanley said.

ALSO READ: Caution Ahead!

Previous Story

WEF kicks off with focus on economic downturn

Next Story

UK govt to send 20,000 troops in biggest deployment to NATO exercises

Latest from -Top News

‘Kill and Dump’ Haunts Balochistan Again

The latest killings have reignited accusations of extrajudicial executions and the use of counterterrorism laws to cover up custodial deaths in Balochistan….reports Asian Lite News Concerns have deepened across Balochistan following the

‘ASEAN Expands, But Keeps Its Soul’

Malaysian Foreign Minister Mohamad Hasan urged ASEAN to uphold its unity and strategic resolve amid intensifying geopolitical tensions and mounting external pressures…reports Asian Lite News Consensus and inclusivity will remain the cornerstones

Bangladesh bends to beat Trump’s blow

Dhaka seeks compromise as Trump’s 35% tariff looms large over key exports; Washington urges worker protections, factory relocation to US…reports Asian Lite News Bangladesh has opened the second round of critical trade

China seethes as US lands F-35s in PH

As US F-35 jets land in the Philippines for the first time, Manila cements its frontline role in Washington’s power play against rising China….reports Asian Lite News The Philippines is rapidly cementing
Go toTop

Don't Miss

India Pledges Support for Sikhs, Condemns Extremism

India’s External Affairs Minister, S. Jaishankar expressed his belief that

Congress to discuss Rajasthan crisis after June 10

Sources said that there will be a major overhaul in