India’s retail inflation eases to 7.04%

Despite the decline, the headline inflation remains above the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) upper tolerance level of 6 per cent for the fifth consecutive month….reports Asian Lite News

India’s headline retail inflation eased to 7.04 per cent in May from an 8-year high of 7.79 per cent recorded in the previous month on softening food prices, government data showed on Monday.

A favourable base effect is among the major reasons for the decline in the inflation numbers in May 2022. Consumer Price Index (CPI) based retail inflation stood at 6.3 per cent in May 2021.

Despite the decline, the headline inflation remains above the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) upper tolerance level of 6 per cent for the fifth consecutive month.

Rural retail inflation declined to 7.01 per cent in May 2022 from 8.38 per cent recorded in the previous month. CPI-based urban inflation declined to 7.08 per cent during the month under review from 7.09 per cent in April 2022, as per the data released by the National Statistical Office (NSO), Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation.

Food inflation based on Consumer Food Price Index (CFPI) eased to 7.97 per cent in May 2022 from 8.31 per cent in the previous month. In May 2021, CFPI-based food inflation stood at 5.01 per cent.

The CPI-based retail inflation is projected to remain at 7.5 per cent in the first quarter of the current financial year, as per the RBI.

In its monetary policy review last week, the RBI raised the inflation forecast for the current financial year to 6.7 per cent from its earlier projection of 5.7 per cent.

As per the RBI’s new projection announced after the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting, inflation is likely to remain above the central bank’s upper tolerance limit of 6 per cent for the first three quarters of 2022-23.

In the second quarter CPI-based retail inflation is projected at 7.4 per cent and for the third quarter, it is projected at 6.2 per cent, as per the RBI.

Inflation is likely to come within the RBI’s tolerance limit in the fourth quarter of 2022-23. For the fourth quarter of the current financial year, the RBI’s forecast for inflation is 5.8 per cent.

For the calculation of the May inflation data, the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation said “price data are collected from selected 1114 urban markets and 1181 villages covering all States/UTs through personal visits by field staff of Field Operations Division of NSO, MoSPI on a weekly roster.”

During the month of May 2022, NSO collected prices from 99.8 per cent of villages and 98.3 per cent urban markets while the market-wise prices reported therein were 90.0 per cent for rural and 93.1 per cent for urban, the ministry said in a statement. (ANI)

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